A recent story
in the Wall Street Journal shows why
we need to look for new ways to finance highway transportation.
According to the latest American Community Survey released
by the Census Bureau, carpooling is declining at an alarming rate. In 1980, carpooling was at an all time
high of 20 percent; today it is 9.7 percent. And we aren’t leaving our cars behind and taking public
transit, either; that declined slightly from 6 percent to 5 percent in 2012. We are telecommuting more, but again,
only slightly. That rose to 4
percent (from two percent in 1980.)
Result: more of
us are driving alone. Older
workers are working later in life; vehicle use is up among lower income
Americans and 45 percent of U.S. households have no access to public
transportation, says the WSJ.
Which means, more cars on the road, more wear and tear on our roads, and
a greater need for new highways to alleviate congestion.
At the same time, the primary source of funding for highway
projects in California – the gas tax – is a declining source of revenue.
We know that cars are more fuel-efficient than they were
thirty years ago, which means less overall consumption of gas. More than this, the sale of hybrid and
electric cars is accelerating faster than a Toyota Prius. In
2012, sales of electrics and hybrids rose 73 percent from the prior year
making these cars the fastest growing sector of the auto industry. One research group predicts sales will
increase another 12 percent this year, putting more than half a million
electric/hybrid vehicles on the roads.
Perhaps an even deeper indicator of where auto trends are
going is that sales of Tesla’s Model S (price: $64,000) are through the roof in America’s
wealthiest zip codes. In
California cities like Atherton, Los Altos Hills and Portola Valley
(admittedly, all tony neighborhoods close to Tesla’s HQ) sales of the Model S
are in double digits and outpacing far more expensive, gas-guzzling cars. In fact, the Tesla is the most
registered vehicle in 8 of the top 25 zip codes in the U.S.
As the company rolls out vehicles in other price points,
more Californians are likely to take advantage and wean themselves off fossil
fuels, at least in their cars.
All this means revenue from the existing gas tax is
ultimately unsustainable, even with tax hikes. The trend is clear in the Board of Equalization’s own
consumption survey. In 2005,
California drivers purchased 15.9 billion gallons of gas. By last year, following steady annual
declines, consumption was down to 14.5 billion and this year is on pace to be
closer to 14 billion.
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